Reading the launch
Jev's gut said 90% certain and the ledger said 60%, so the room built a token that pays out only when you admit you don't know. Every wallet ships with a Brier score; brag past your confidence interval and your bags get haircut by the error bar. A trader once posted 'this is 100% going up' and the contract politely refunded him for being wrong about being right. Accuracy is a lucky guess. Calibration is a lifestyle.
Reading trades.